2024 Election Thoughts — The Case for a Trump Victory

Note: The post below reflects my prediction for the 2024 election and does not represent my own political beliefs or the views of my employer.

Below, I outline the quantitative and qualitative reasons why I believe Trump will win the presidency in 2024. My analysis suggests that the environment is largely unfavorable to the incumbent party / Democrats, and as a result, we will see a Trump victory in 2024.

1. Early voting data suggests lower turnout among groups that have historically voted Democrat vs. the 2020 and 2022 Elections.

We are seeing record turnout with early voting, and with it, we can see early voter turnout trends based on what each state discloses (which is different by state). This includes male / female vote split, urban + suburban county / rural county split, registered democrat vs. registered republican / other split and age 18–29 vs. other split.

The logic goes that historically speaking, (1) women, (2) urban + suburban, (3) registered democrat, and (4) younger voters tend to vote Democrat. So if the percentage of early votes belonging to these groups is higher vs. 2020 and 2022, elections that democrats largely won (vs. expectations), then it is a good sign they will win in 2024. People can also use it as a proxy for voter enthusiasm / turnout. Enthusiastic voters are more likely to vote early, so demographic groups that show up in early votes are likely to show higher overall voter turnout when the election is all said and done.

Based on the table above, it feels likely that Democrats are going to underperform vs. 2020 and 2022, increasing the odds of a Republican victory in 2024.

2. Swing states have shown greater increases in voter registrations for Republicans vs. Democrats between 2020–2024 vs. 2016–2020

• 3 of the swing states disclose voter registration by party on their secretary of state pages.
• Below is a table that shows the party registration of voters in the state of Arizona
• The spread between the total number of Republican voter registrations minus the total number of Democrat voter registrations was 295,555 in Nov 2024, which is a net increase of 129,247 vs. the spread from Nov 2022 of 166,308. I have marked the net changes in the Republicans’ favor in red below, and the net changes in the Democrats’ favor in blue below.
• As you can see from the table below, voter registrations were largely swinging in the Democrat’s favor between Nov 2016 and Nov 2020. This has reversed between Nov 2020 and Nov 2024

Here’s what the data looks like for Nevada and Pennsylvania as well, which shows greater increases for Republicans in Nov 2020-Nov 2024 period:

3. Voters are historically sensitive to high inflation, and are more likely to vote out incumbent regimes.

In June of 2022, inflation hit a peak of ~9%, and prices are up to 20–30% higher vs. pre-COVID levels (depending on what state you’re in). While the increases in prices have largely come down to ~3% year over year, the increase vs. 2020 levels is still substantial and apparent to the average American consumer. While inflation in most industrialized countries outside the US is much worse, it doesn’t leave the Biden administration blameless in the eyes of US consumers, especially given headlines around large increases in spending (including the infrastructure bill).

Incumbent parties have also faired very poorly, whether conservative or liberal, in global elections, given incumbent parties are largely blamed for high inflation in their countries.

The below map from Nate Silver shows the impact of inflation by state, with dark red meaning higher relative inflation and light red meaning lower relative inflation. The map below suggests that Democrats would likely see headwinds in NV, AZ and FL, among the contested states.

4. The Cultural Environment that Favored Democrats in 2020 Has Largely Reversed in 2024

Tyler Cowen (link here) does a good job outlining the change in “vibes” in 2024 vs. 2020. In a nutshell, the cultural vibes have shifted back more to the right in 2024, with more public criticism (right or wrong) on “wokeness”, crime, and COVID.

Social media has also changed as well. Elon Musk has taken over Twitter (X), moving the platform to be more conservative vs. 2020. Since 2020, there has also been an increase in male influencers who often lean conservative. The move to the right within YouTube and Twitter largely coincides with the increasing conservative lean of young men in America, which could help tilt the election to Trump. It is worth noting as well that young men largely consume their news via YouTube and Twitter, whereas women do it through Tiktok and Instagram. With women moving more to the left post the Dobbs abortion decision, one could argue that the 2024 election largely comes down to female vs. male turnout, and the degree to which their party lean has changed.

5. Democrats’ dominance among racial/ethnic minority groups has declined

Recent polls suggest that racial minority groups (especially men), which have historically had a significant Democrat lean, are starting to move a bit more to the center. If this historical Democrat lean subsides, then it will likely lead to losses in NV, AZ, GA, and to some extent NC, which all have historically had large Democrat support within these communities.

Final Forecast

Among the swing states….

Trump likely wins:

• Arizona (Biden+0.4% in 2020) — High inflation relative to other states, voter registration disadvantage, high % of Hispanic and Black Men
• Nevada (Biden+2.4% in 2020)— High inflation relative to other states, voter registration disadvantage, high % of Hispanic and Black Men
• Georgia (Biden+0.3% in 2020)— Moderately high inflation relative to other states, High % of Hispanic and Black Men
• North Carolina (Trump +1.3% in 2020) — Given broader trends outlined above, unlikely for Harris to flip this state in 2024

Trump wins slightly:

• Wisconsin (Biden+0.6% in 2020)
• Pennsylvania (Biden+1.2% in 2020)

Harris wins:

• Michigan (Biden +2.8% in 2020) — High percentage of college-educated voters (which polls suggest Harris is winning), inflation impact lower than other states